Footiehound

5 Key Stats You Should Check Before Placing a Football Bet

• Ken Anucha
• June 26, 2025

When it comes to football betting, most people check the league table and recent scores. But the truth is—those don’t tell the whole story. Winning consistently as a bettor means digging deeper, and that starts with understanding the right stats.

At Footiehound, we don’t guess. We rely on proven data that paints a fuller picture of every team and match. In this guide, you’ll discover 5 key statistics you should always check before placing your next football bet—and why each one can make or break your slip.

1. xG (Expected Goals)

We talked about this in detail in our last article, but it deserves the top spot again.

Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of chances created by a team—not just how many goals they scored. A team can win 1–0 with an xG of 0.4 (lucky) or lose 0–1 with an xG of 2.1 (unlucky).

Why it matters:
If you rely only on results, you may back a team that’s due for a loss. xG reveals whether their performances support their wins.

Example:
A team on a 4-game winning streak with xG totals under 1.0 in each game might not sustain that form.

2. Shots on Target vs Total Shots

A team may take 20 shots—but only 2 on target. That tells you a lot.

Total shots show how busy a team is.
Shots on target show how sharp they are.

The ratio between the two shows finishing quality and decision-making. Some teams are wasteful, others are deadly efficient.

Why it matters:
Betting on goals? A high number of shots on target means more real chances, not just hopeful strikes.

Example:

• Team A: 18 shots, 4 on target = 22% accuracy

• Team B: 10 shots, 6 on target = 60% accuracy

Team B is more likely to score when chances come.

3. Big Chances Created & Missed

This stat digs deeper than xG. It’s about clear, goal-scoring opportunities — one-on-ones, unmarked headers, and open nets.

Many teams create chances but can’t convert. Others take their few chances and finish.

Why it matters:
This helps you understand attacking efficiency and danger levels—ideal for BTTS, Over 2.5, or anytime scorer bets.

Example:
If a team misses 4 big chances per game, they may look good on xG but still fail to score. That’s a red flag if you’re backing them to win.

4. Goals Conceded in Last 5 (Not Just Results)

Instead of looking at just W–D–L, study how many goals they’ve conceded recently. Some teams lose 1–0 to top sides and still look solid. Others leak 2–3 goals every match but grab draws.

Why it matters:
If you’re backing a clean sheet, BTTS, or correct score, you need to know defensive trends—not just outcomes.

Example:

• Team A: Last 5 matches – 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 goals conceded

• Team B: Last 5 matches – 2, 3, 1, 2, 4 goals conceded

Team A is far more reliable for clean sheet or “win to nil” bets.

5. First Half/Second Half Goal Trends

Some teams start fast. Others sleep through the first half and come alive later. This data helps for markets like:

• First Half Goals

• HT/FT Bets

• In-play decisions

Why it matters:
A team with consistent early goals may be worth backing for First Half Over 0.5. A slow starter may offer better odds after 30 minutes in-play.

Example:

• Team A: 70% of total goals scored in first half

• Team B: 80% of goals scored after 60th minute

You adjust your prediction based on when the team is most dangerous.

Bonus: Where to Find These Stats

You don’t need paid tools to access this data. Here are some free and reliable sources:

• Sofascore – for shots, passes, and chance conversion

• Understat – for xG and xA data

• Footiehound – where we blend all of these insights into real-world betting tips

• FBref – for in-depth player and team stats

Final Thoughts

In smart betting, stats speak louder than scorelines. If you’re serious about predicting winners and smashing the bookies, you need to go beyond the obvious.

At Footiehound, our predictions are grounded in these exact data points—not gut feelings or blind tips. Each stat gives us a piece of the puzzle. When you combine them, you see what the bookmakers try to hide: predictable patterns behind every match.

Start small. Pick 2 or 3 stats to follow consistently. Watch how your prediction accuracy improves. Then come back to Footiehound daily for even more data-backed insights and winning picks.