Tip LOST  ·  AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda
🏆 Eredivisie 📅 Sunday, 17th May 2026
AA
AZ Alkmaar
D D D W D
3-3
VS
NB
NAC Breda
W L L D D
Today's Top Prediction
Our Recommended Selection
1
We're backing AZ Alkmaar to win in this fixture.
Predicted Score
1-0
10.5% probability
Odds
1.36
9/25
-278
Confidence
55%
Solid Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1  —  AZ Alkmaar to win @1.36
Goals Over 1.5 85%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — No 65%
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting tips are derived from recent form data and are secondary to the main selection above. All bets carry risk.

⚔ Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar8W
Draw1
NAC Breda1W
Supports Tip AZ Alkmaar won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📈 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar wins4/10
NAC Breda wins2/10
Goals per game2.9
H2H avg goals3.1
Caution AZ Alkmaar: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games.
4-4-2
AZ Alkmaar form
2-3-5
NAC Breda form
60%
H2H BTTS rate
3.1
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Overall
5.2
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.0
NAC Breda
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
3.7
Key Analytics
AZ Alkmaar
1.9
Goals
scored/game
1.2
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
NAC Breda
0.8
Goals
scored/game
1.9
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Correct Score Predictions

Poisson model based on both teams' recent goals-per-game averages. These are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees.

⭐ Top Pick
1-0
10.5% probability
Alternative
1-1
10.5% probability
Alternative
2-0
9.9% probability
Combination Markets

Estimated probabilities derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
Stake Calculator
Return
13.60
Net profit: 3.60
Match History
Head to Head
31.08.25
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
1
24.04.25
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
1
1
15.12.24
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
1
2
12.02.20
KNV
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
1
3
08.02.19
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
12.08.18
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
5
0
17.02.18
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
1
3
10.09.17
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
2
1
10.05.15
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
3
2
08.11.14
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
1
Recent Results
AZ Alkmaar
10.05.26
ERE
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
03.05.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
2
2
D
23.04.26
ERE
G.A. Eagles
AZ Alkmaar
0
0
D
19.04.26
KNV
AZ Alkmaar
Nijmegen
5
1
W
16.04.26
UECL
AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
2
D
12.04.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
3
0
W
09.04.26
UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
L
04.04.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Sittard
2
0
W
22.03.26
ERE
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
L
19.03.26
UECL
Sparta Prague
AZ Alkmaar
0
4
W
NAC Breda
11.05.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
W
02.05.26
ERE
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
L
25.04.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Ajax
0
2
L
12.04.26
ERE
Sittard
NAC Breda
1
1
D
05.04.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
0
D
21.03.26
ERE
Zwolle
NAC Breda
2
1
L
15.03.26
ERE
G.A. Eagles
NAC Breda
6
0
L
08.03.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
3
3
D
27.02.26
ERE
Telstar
NAC Breda
3
0
L
21.02.26
ERE
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
0
W
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Expert Analysis

Under the floodlights at the AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar square off against NAC Breda in an Eredivisie matchup that heavily favors the hosts. AZ Alkmaar are locked in a ruthless pursuit of European qualification, meaning they simply cannot afford to drop points against teams residing in the bottom half of the table. AZ’s tactical identity revolves around rapid ball circulation and an aggressive counter-press that chokes opponents high up the pitch. Statistically, AZ ranks among the top three in the Eredivisie for ball recoveries in the final third, highlighting exactly how they plan to dismantle NAC Breda.

NAC Breda is experiencing all the classic symptoms of a team out of its depth against top-tier opposition. Their recent away form has been miserable, largely due to a midfield that easily gets overrun when pressured. In historical head-to-head encounters, AZ has consistently punished NAC’s slow defensive transitions. NAC Breda knows they are walking into a buzzsaw; their only realistic tactical avenue is to bypass the midfield entirely with long balls, hoping to snatch a goal on the break. However, AZ’s central defenders are statistically dominant in aerial duels. The pressure on AZ is clear: win, and stay in the hunt for European nights. Given NAC Breda’s glaring structural weaknesses and poor away record, AZ Alkmaar is fully equipped to systematically dismantle them, dominating the ball and creating a multitude of high-quality scoring opportunities.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our top pick is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win at around 1.36. Confidence: 55%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's recent form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 — up and down.
How has NAC Breda been performing?
NAC Breda: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar 8 wins vs NAC Breda's 1, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.1 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.9 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 60%.