Footiehound

Why xG (Expected Goals) Matters in Football Predictions

• Ken Anucha
• June 26, 2025

Football predictions aren’t just about who’s scoring and who’s not. If you’re placing bets or following match previews, one of the most powerful tools you can add to your kit is something called xG — short for expected goals. It’s not just a stat for data nerds. It’s a game-changer that helps punters understand the true story behind every scoreline.

In this article, we’ll explain in simple terms what xG means, why it matters so much for football predictions, and how you can use it to make smarter, more informed choices—especially if you follow prediction sites like Footiehound, where tips are built on real match analysis, not guesswork.

What is xG (Expected Goals)?

Let’s break it down simply:
Expected Goals (xG) is a number that shows how likely a shot is to result in a goal.

If a player takes a shot from just in front of the goal, with no defender nearby, that chance might have an xG value of 0.85 — meaning it’s very likely to result in a goal.

But a long-range effort from 30 yards out might have an xG of 0.05 — a much lower chance.

Now, imagine a team creates 10 chances in a match. Some are big, some are tiny. Add up all those xG numbers, and you get the total xG for the team in that game. This gives a better picture of how dangerous they were—not just how many goals they scored.

Why xG Tells a More Honest Story Than the Scoreline

Football is unpredictable. A team can dominate a match, hit the post, miss a penalty, and still lose 1–0. But xG doesn’t lie. It shows us how many goals a team should have scored, based on the quality of their chances.

For example:

This is key in football predictions. By looking at xG, you can spot when a team is overperforming (scoring more than expected) or underperforming (creating chances but not converting).

How Does Footiehound Use xG?

At Footiehound, we know that form tables and final scores don’t always tell the full story. That’s why we integrate xG insights into our match previews and predictions.

For example:

• If a team has won three in a row but had a lower xG in every match, we tread carefully. They may be due for a setback.

• If another team has lost two straight but had an xG advantage in both, we consider them a value bet in their next match.

This kind of analysis helps punters smash the bookies by backing teams the public might overlook.

Using xG in Your Own Predictions

Here’s how you can start using xG when deciding on bets or predictions:

1. Check Recent xG Trends

Don’t just look at results. Look at xG in the last 5–6 games. You’ll find surprising patterns:

• Teams on winning streaks with low xG = red flag.

• Teams drawing or losing with high xG = hidden gold.

2. Compare Home vs Away xG

Some teams create far more chances at home. Others are better on the counter away from home. Study the xG split in both settings.

3. Watch for Key Player Influence

A team’s xG can dip when their star striker is out. Or rise when a creative midfielder returns. Always check team news alongside xG data.

Real-Life Example: Arsenal vs Brentford

Imagine Arsenal beats Brentford 2–0. Great result, right?

But what if:

• Arsenal xG: 0.8

• Brentford xG: 2.1

What this tells you is:

• Arsenal scored two goals from low-quality chances

• Brentford missed several big chances

A bettor only looking at the score would think Arsenal is in great form. But xG shows they were lucky—and maybe not worth backing next time.

FAQs About xG in Football Betting

Q: Is xG perfect?
No. It’s a model based on shot quality. It doesn’t measure things like goalkeeper form, deflections, or momentum. But it’s far better than guessing based on goals alone.

Q: Where can I find xG stats?
Websites like Understat, FBref, and Whoscored offer free xG data. Footiehound also uses xG analysis in certain prediction articles.

Q: Can xG help with markets like BTTS or Over 2.5?
Yes. If both teams regularly generate high xG, it’s a good sign for goals. If both have low xG, it might be a dull game.

Final Thoughts

If you want to move from casual betting to more consistent success, xG is your friend. It gives you a deeper, fairer, and more accurate view of team performance.

At Footiehound, we’re not just throwing tips at you. We analyze the matches from a data-first perspective, helping you make educated bets that stand the test of time.

Want to start seeing more data-driven predictions? Explore Footiehound’s daily updates where xG plays a key role in selecting winning teams—not just lucky guesses.