Footiehound

How Betting Odds Work in Football and What They Actually Mean

• Ken Anucha
• March 11, 2025

If you’ve ever looked at football betting odds and thought, “What do these numbers even mean?” you’re not alone. Odds aren’t just random numbers—they represent the probability of an event happening and how much you could win if your prediction is correct. 

Whether you’re betting on a match winner, total goals, or even a first goal scorer, understanding how odds are calculated and why they fluctuate can give you a better grasp of the game. 

But how do bookmakers set these odds, and why do they sometimes shift just before kickoff? Here’s an overview of how betting odds work in football and what they actually mean.

What Are Football Betting Odds?

Betting odds in football show the likelihood of an event happening based on historical data, team form, injuries, and other factors. Odds are typically displayed in three formats:

• Decimal (2.50): Common in Australia and Europe. A $10 bet at 2.50 returns $25 total ($15 profit).
• Fractional (3/2): Common in the UK. A 3/2 bet means for every $2 wagered, you win $3.
• Moneyline (+150): Used in the US. A +150 means a $100 bet wins $150.

If a team has low odds (e.g., 1.50), they are the favorite. If the odds are high (e.g., 6.00), they are the underdog. These odds reflect the probability of an event happening, but bookmakers adjust them to balance risk.

How Bookmakers Set and Adjust Odds

Bookmakers don’t just predict outcomes. They balance their books to make a profit regardless of the result. Here’s how it works:

• They analyze team form, head-to-head history, injuries, tactics, and weather conditions to assign an initial probability.
• They then adjust the odds based on how much money is being placed on each outcome.
• If too many bets come in on one team, the odds shift to encourage bets on the other side, ensuring the bookmaker doesn’t take a huge loss.

This is why odds can change dramatically right before a match starts, especially if there’s breaking news, like a star player getting injured.

Understanding Risk vs. Reward in Football Betting

One of the biggest mistakes people make is assuming longer odds mean a bigger payday. While it’s true that backing an underdog can pay more if they win, there’s a reason why their odds are high: they are less likely to succeed.

For example, if a team like Manchester City plays against a lower-division club, City’s odds might be 1.20 (meaning a $10 bet wins just $2). But betting on the underdog at 10.00 odds could turn a $10 bet into $100—if they manage to pull off a shocking upset.

This concept of risk vs. reward applies not just to football but also to other games that involve calculated decision-making. Even in some of the best online casinos in Australia, strategic players assess risk, analyze probabilities, and manage their bets wisely, just like a football bettor weighing the odds before placing a wager.

Why Odds Fluctuate and How to Use It to Your Advantage

Odds aren’t static. They change based on team news, betting trends, and even external factors like weather conditions or a referee’s appointment. Some key factors that influence odds movement include:

Injury reports: If a star striker is ruled out, the odds shift dramatically.

Betting volume: If too many people bet on one team, the odds adjust to even out the bets.

Tactical surprises: If a coach unexpectedly rests key players, the market reacts.

Smart bettors look for early value bets before odds shift or wait for in-game opportunities, where odds change rapidly during live play.

Common Betting Markets and What to Look For

Beyond simply betting on who will win, there are many other football betting markets that odds apply to, including:

• Over/Under Goals: Betting on the total number of goals in a game.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Whether both teams will score at least once.
• Handicap Betting: Giving a virtual advantage to the underdog (e.g., +1.5 goals).
• First Goal Scorer: Predicting who will score first.

Understanding how probability affects these different markets helps bettors make more calculated decisions, rather than just betting blindly on their favorite team.