Tip WON  ·  Arsenal 1-0 Burnley
🏆 Premier League 📅 Monday, 18th May 2026
A
Arsenal
W W W D W
1-0
VS
B
Burnley
D L L L L
Today's Top Prediction
Our Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Arsenal to win in this fixture.
Predicted Score
1-0
14.2% probability
Odds
1.11
1/9
-909
Confidence
57%
Solid Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1  —  Arsenal to win @1.11
Arsenal Clean Sheet Home CS 60%

Supporting tips are derived from recent form data and are secondary to the main selection above. All bets carry risk.

⚔ Head to Head
Arsenal6W
Draw3
Burnley1W
Supports Tip Arsenal won 6 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Arsenal wins5/10
Burnley wins0/10
Goals per game2.5
H2H avg goals2.2
Mixed Arsenal: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games.
5-2-3
Arsenal form
0-3-7
Burnley form
40%
H2H BTTS rate
2.2
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Arsenal
Overall
5.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
7.7
Burnley
Overall
0.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.7
Key Analytics
Arsenal
1.1
Goals
scored/game
0.7
Goals
conceded/game
60%
Clean
sheets
Burnley
0.9
Goals
scored/game
2.2
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Correct Score Predictions

Poisson model based on both teams' recent goals-per-game averages. These are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees.

⭐ Top Pick
1-0
14.2% probability
Alternative
2-0
11.7% probability
Alternative
1-1
11.4% probability
Combination Markets

Estimated probabilities derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
Stake Calculator
Return
11.10
Net profit: 1.10
Match History
Head to Head
01.11.25
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
0
2
17.02.24
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
0
5
11.11.23
PL
Arsenal
Burnley
3
1
23.01.22
PL
Arsenal
Burnley
0
0
18.09.21
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
0
1
06.03.21
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
1
1
13.12.20
PL
Arsenal
Burnley
0
1
02.02.20
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
0
0
17.08.19
PL
Arsenal
Burnley
2
1
12.05.19
PL
Burnley
Arsenal
1
3
Recent Results
Arsenal
10.05.26
PL
West Ham
Arsenal
0
1
W
05.05.26
CL
Arsenal
Atl. Madrid
1
0
W
02.05.26
PL
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
29.04.26
CL
Atl. Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
25.04.26
PL
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
19.04.26
PL
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
1
L
15.04.26
CL
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
PL
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
07.04.26
CL
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
W
04.04.26
FAC
Southampton
Arsenal
2
1
L
Burnley
10.05.26
PL
Burnley
Aston Villa
2
2
D
01.05.26
PL
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
L
22.04.26
PL
Burnley
Manchester City
0
1
L
19.04.26
PL
Nottingham
Burnley
4
1
L
11.04.26
PL
Burnley
Brighton
0
2
L
21.03.26
PL
Fulham
Burnley
3
1
L
14.03.26
PL
Burnley
Bournemouth
0
0
D
03.03.26
PL
Everton
Burnley
2
0
L
28.02.26
PL
Burnley
Brentford
3
4
L
21.02.26
PL
Chelsea
Burnley
1
1
D
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Expert Analysis

The English Premier League spotlight falls heavily on the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal welcomes Burnley. This fixture represents a stark clash of two entirely different footballing philosophies and current ambitions. Arsenal, operating at the absolute peak of their powers under Mikel Arteta, are a relentless, well-oiled attacking machine. They dominate possession, press intensely high up the pitch, and possess a terrifying array of creative talent capable of unlocking any defense in world football. The Emirates has become a true fortress, a place where visiting teams are often suffocated from the first whistle. Burnley, stepping onto the pitch as massive underdogs, will rely heavily on their traditional core values: a deep, highly compact defensive block, physical resilience, and the faint hope of snatching something on the counter-attack or through a perfectly executed set-piece.

The tactical mismatch in this encounter is glaring and impossible to ignore. Arsenal will monopolize the ball, permanently pinning Burnley deep inside their own half for the vast majority of the ninety minutes. The head-to-head history overwhelmingly favors the Gunners, particularly in North London. Burnley’s defensive strategy will be to deny any space between the lines, but Arsenal’s intricate passing, rapid interchanges, and individual brilliance on the wings are specifically designed to dismantle exactly such setups. The sheer, overwhelming volume of pressure, shots, and penalty area entries Arsenal will generate makes it incredibly difficult to envision Burnley maintaining a clean sheet. Statistically, Arsenal’s home form and goal-scoring metrics against bottom-half opposition suggest a very comfortable afternoon for the hosts.

The narrative entirely driving this match is Arsenal’s absolute “must-win” pressure in the context of the grueling Premier League title race. In the unforgiving environment of the English top flight, title contenders simply do not ever drop points at home against teams fighting a relegation battle. A draw or a loss would be widely viewed as a catastrophic failure. Arsenal players acutely understand the stakes; they know that true champions ruthlessly dispatch these types of opponents without drama. Burnley will fight bravely, but the gulf in pure quality, financial resources, and tactical sophistication is simply too vast to ignore. Arsenal’s elite motivation, combined with their overwhelming attacking firepower and the impenetrable atmosphere of the Emirates, makes a home victory one of the most bankable outcomes in world football.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our top pick is 1 — Arsenal to win at around 1.11. Confidence: 57%.
What is Arsenal's recent form?
Arsenal have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 — decent form.
How has Burnley been performing?
Burnley: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal 6 wins vs Burnley's 1, with 3 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.2 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.5 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 40%.